Nestor G Pestelos Jr (ngpestelos)

Eclectic Insights

  • Travel as a Relationship Litmus Test

    Traveling with a partner to challenging places tests compatibility before marriage. Bill Murray says if you travel together and still love each other upon returning, marriage is a good idea.

    Travel reveals how you navigate challenges and stress. A well-planned adventure shows if you’re compatible.

    Joe Rogan says a long trip is essential to understand someone, revealing how a partner deals with logistics, stress, restaurants, and maintaining their “act.”

    Chris Williamson’s Jamaican traffic experience revealed his partner’s character. Rogan calls this a “Navy Seal hell week” for a relationship.

    Rogan notes observing how a partner handles mistakes, responsibility, and behavior under pressure. A long trip reveals true character and how they handle close proximity and difficulties.

  • JRE 2293 Chris Williamson

    Insights:

    • Antarctica Experiment
    • Pyramid Discoveries (Giza)
    • University Issues and Social Justice
    • Tribalism and Outgroups
    • Criticism and Online Discourse
    • Elon Musk and Autism
    • Political Fatigue and Media
    • Ozempic and Body Image
    • Universe and Existence Theories
    • Movies and Culture
    • Personal Life and Health
    • Relationships and Attraction
    • Performance Enhancers and Drive
    • Physical and Mental Limits
    • Happiness and Fulfillment
    • Anecdotes and Stories
    • Technology and Society

  • Eclectic Insights on Finance (October 2024 to March 2025)

    Note: I used NotebookLM to generate this summary.

    Stock Market Activity and Performance:

    Several sources discuss the performance of the Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) and other global indices. On October 22, 2024, the local market had marginally gained [@Philstocks_ on Twitter, Tweets From Philstocks Financial Inc.]. By November 26, 2024, the PSEi was back to the 6,800 level on bargain-hunting. Despite a seven-day slump, the PSEi finished in the green on a Friday in late December 2024, but still dropped 3.18 percent week-on-week. The PSEi ultimately closed the year 2024 at 6,528.79, a 1.22% gain year-on-year. In contrast, tech stocks took a hit overnight on November 1, 2024, with Meta and Microsoft showing declines. On the same day, the Dow Jones, S&P, and Nasdaq were up. Stock futures fell across the board on December 13, 2024, after Donald Trump threatened tariffs.

    Specific companies and investment instruments are also mentioned:

    • AREIT declared its 17th consecutive non-shrinking dividend. On November 26, 2024, the ex-date for AREIT’s Q3 dividend was noted. By December 24, 2024, AREIT was being rerated to “Buy” by AP Securities due to the expected BSP rate cut cycle and future asset infusions. A property-for-share swap was expected to enhance AREIT’s value in February 2025.
    • DDMPR’s Q2 dividend payment date was November 26, 2024.
    • DITO’s follow-on offering period ended on November 26, 2024.
    • The tender offer for FLI/FILRT ended on November 27, 2024. Filinvest Land (FLI) planned to use proceeds from a bond issuance for new retail spaces.
    • PHN’s stock rights offering listing date was November 27, 2024.
    • The payment date for RCR’s regular and special dividends was set for November 29, 2024.
    • Haus Talk (HTI) gained nearly 7% in its debut on November 1, 2024. HTI’s IPO on the PSE’s SME board aimed to diversify real estate investment options, particularly in low-income housing. Shareholders questioned HTI’s project pipeline changes after its IPO, with IPO proceeds intended for land acquisition and project development.
    • ALLDY’s IPO experienced losses, highlighting the limitations of stability funds.
    • D.M. Wenceslao & Associates (DMW) acquired a majority stake in Bay Resources and Development Corp. in December 2024, providing fresh capital.

    Interest Rates, Inflation, and Monetary Policy:

    The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) maintained its key rate at 6.25% as of October 25, 2024. However, the BSP’s average inflation forecast for 2023 was revised up to 5.8 percent, and for 2024 to 3.5 percent. By March 2025, analysts anticipated the BSP having “greater motivation” to cut borrowing costs, with expectations of up to 50 basis points worth of rate cuts during the year. Bank of America (BofA) Global Research projected two 25-bp cuts in 2025, bringing the overnight borrowing rate to 5.25% by year-end.

    The US Federal Reserve also played a role, with “hawkish comments” spooking local equities in late December 2024. The end of a lengthy period of zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) by central banks was noted as causing a major change in the tech industry, leading to more pressure for profitability, less venture capital funding, and challenges for startups accessing funding. In December 2024, the FOMC announced its third rate cut since September, bringing the federal funds range to 4.25-4.50%, and updated its projections to include just two rate cuts in 2025.

    Real Estate and Infrastructure:

    Real estate remained a significant area of investment. The Health Facilities Enhancement Program, with a budget of P14.31 billion, aimed to provide infrastructure and medical equipment. HTI’s focus on low-income housing was highlighted. AREIT, as the PSE’s first REIT, was considered a “gold standard” with an estimated yield. Pueblo de Oro secured P1.25 billion in loan agreements for its developments. Filinvest Land (FLI) planned to expand its retail portfolio. Federal Land Nomura Real Estate (FNG) aimed to blend Japanese innovation with local understanding in their developments. Metro Pacific Investments Corp. (MPIC) set a P116-billion capital expenditure budget for 2025, with a significant portion allocated to power, toll roads, and water infrastructure.

    Banking and Finance Sector:

    The BSP earned P105.6 billion from January to August 2024, nearly five times higher than the previous year, due to higher revenues and lower spending. The BSP also considered amendments to regulations on cross-selling by banks. Banks’ foreign currency deposit units (FCDU) loans increased to $15.7 billion by the end of 2024. Higala Group Inc. and RCBC partnered to operationalize an open payments platform. The Philippine Deposit Insurance Corporation (PDIC) renewed its partnership with its Indonesian counterpart to foster collaboration on deposit insurance. Finance Secretary Ralph Recto encouraged Australian businesses to invest in the Philippines’ Maharlika sovereign wealth fund. Concerns were raised about PhilHealth funds being “siphoned off” into the Maharlika Fund. The transfer of PhilHealth’s “excess funds” to the Bureau of Treasury was debated.

    Cryptocurrency and Blockchain:

    Cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin and Cardano, garnered significant attention. The crypto space was described as being where “all the action is right now” due to the Bitcoin hype cycle and potential pro-crypto policies.

    • Bitcoin’s halving cycle was expected to increase scarcity and potentially pump its price, similar to previous cycles. The average Bitcoin price for the 2020-2024 halving cycle was noted. Prediction markets saw a base case for Bitcoin rising above $150,000 by the end of 2025. MicroStrategy increased its Bitcoin holdings significantly. BlackRock explicitly saw similarities between Bitcoin and the “Magnificent 7” stocks, suggesting potential for substantial growth. ETFs continued to buy Bitcoin. Arthur Hayes predicted a steady rise in Bitcoin’s value after a recent downturn. The Kelly Criterion suggested a high allocation to Bitcoin for a portfolio also containing cash.
    • Cardano also saw developments, with NYSE Arca submitting a filing to launch a Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund with Cardano as a significant asset. Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson announced “Midnight,” a major economic event for Cardano involving an airdrop and bridges with other networks.
    • The concept of Bitcoin potentially controlling inflation by suppressing commodity prices was also raised.

    Economic Outlook and Influences:

    The Asian Development Bank (ADB) revised its 2023 GDP growth forecast for the Philippines downward to 5.7 percent but maintained a 6.2-percent outlook for 2024, citing high inflation and geopolitical tensions. Analysts anticipated headline inflation likely quickened in October 2024 due to higher food and fuel prices. The El Niño phenomenon was noted as contributing to increased electricity consumption and hotter sales for Meralco. A liquidity crunch was brewing across the developing world, raising pressure on international financial institutions. The government’s expenditure program was increased, expected to remain a major contributor to economic growth.

    Personal Finance and Investment Strategies:

    Beyond institutional finance, the sources also touched on personal financial management. Dane Maxwell suggested building an “income stream brain” rather than just exchanging more time for money. The importance of cash flow for businesses was highlighted. The concept of wealth being built through scalable efforts was mentioned. The lifehack of earning in strong currencies and spending in weaker ones was noted.

  • Prudence and Taking More Risks

    Written on May 13, 2024

    To exercise prudence was my grandfather’s advice to me before leaving for University. It took 23 years before I met him again. Now that I’m older and with my own family, I think I’ve exercised too much caution in life.

    Prudence is defined as the ability to exercise careful judgment in decision-making, but certain meaningful pursuits can only be done with some amount of risk that I’ve been avoiding.

  • Binondo (March 2024)

  • Switching to HHKB: A Developer’s Experience

    I’ve started using the HHKB Professional Hybrid keyboard daily for the past month, replacing the Keychron K8, which I’ve used for three years. The HHKB does not feel cramped compared to other 60% keyboards such as the Filco Minila Air, which I previously owned. I’ve been using external keyboards ever since Apple released its butterfly keyboard switches, which were so painful to use. I have then formed an opinion on what constitutes a good external keyboard: (1) key placement, (2) portability, and (3) multiple-device connectivity. The HHKB Professional Hybrid Type-S has exceeded my expectations for all three.

    Key Placement

    A critical aspect of my keyboard preference is key placement, and here’s how the HHKB stands out. The HHKB’s Control key is placed where the Tab key is usually located. This makes it easy for my left pinkie finger to access without having to remap keys. The distance of the other keys allows for touch typing with fewer fat-fingered mistakes. The Keychron K8, on the other hand, is a TKL layout, and tends to have the hands spread out more often to reach keys on the far ends of the keyboard. The Filco Minila Air feels too cramped for a 60% layout, with a very small spacebar.

    One downside to the HHKB’s key layout is the reliance on the pinkie fingers (left to access Ctrl key and right to access the Fn key). This introduces a new kind of finger strain if you find yourself using a lot of arrow keys to navigate or using the Ctrl keys repeatedly. This is a good signal to take a break from typing. Despite the initial adjustment to the pinkie’s increased role, the HHKB’s layout promotes a more natural hand position, reducing the need for excessive reach and thereby minimizing strain.

    Portability

    Sometimes I bring my keyboard when traveling with my laptop. The HHKB is one of the lightest external keyboards I’ve used. Given its weight, I am hesitant to bring the Keychron for travel. While the Minila Air’s size is convenient, its weight is a drawback, unlike the HHKB, which offers the perfect balance of lightness and compactness. I brought my HHKB without issue to a recent overseas trip without needing to buy a keyboard cover and it fits in my backpack’s pouch.

    Multiple Device Connectivity

    The HHKB supports Bluetooth connectivity up to four devices. Pairing with my devices is easy and switching between devices is fast. Unlike the HHKB, the Keychron and Minila Air struggle with Bluetooth connectivity; the Keychron, despite supporting three devices, has a slower switching process, and the Minila Air is limited to just one connection

    Bonus Feature 1: Batteries Included

    The HHKB decided to ship with replaceable batteries (2x AA) and its sleep mode can be disabled through a setting. The Minila Air also supports replaceable batteries. The Keychron, on the other hand, has a built-in rechargeable battery. After three years of continuous usage, the internal battery’s diminished capacity may require keeping a charging cable handy, a minor inconvenience compared to the eventual need for battery replacement. Ultimately, the choice between replaceable and built-in batteries hinges on personal preferences.

    Bonus Feature 2: Shine-resistant keycaps

    Continuous use can lead to keys becoming shiny, affecting the keyboard’s aesthetic appeal. This issue is common with the Keychron and Minila Air, where the keycaps tend to show wear relatively quickly. In contrast, the HHKB seeks to mitigate this problem by utilizing PBT keycaps, which are reputed for their resistance to shine and wear. PBT keycaps are known for retaining their matte finish and texture longer than the more common ABS keycaps found in many keyboards. While only time will confirm the longevity of the HHKB’s keycaps, the use of PBT offers a promising outlook for maintaining a pristine look much longer.

    For a comparison between ABS and PBT keycaps, I recommend this article.

    Bonus Feature 3: Suppressed keystroke noise

    I chose the Type-S variant, which is known for its effective sound suppression during keystrokes. This feature ensures the HHKB offers solid, yet subdued feedback while typing, striking an ideal balance between tactile response and quiet operation. In contrast, while using the Keychron or the Minila Air, I’ve stuck with the standard brown switches, which, despite their reliability, tend to produce a more noticeable sound. This becomes especially obvious during early morning or late-night sessions, when the quieter performance of the HHKB Type-S proves invaluable in a small house with spouse and small children sleeping.

    Conclusion

    In conclusion, the HHKB has truly lived up to its promises, justifying its premium price with performance that exceeds expectations. Its ability to blend into various aspects of my daily routine, while minimizing disruptions, speaks volumes of its thoughtful design. For those in search of a keyboard that marries functionality with minimalistic elegance, the HHKB Type-S proves to be an unparalleled choice.

  • Unfathomable Grief

    I learned that someone I knew had lost a child. I could not imagine the grief of losing one’s own. My heart goes to their family.

    Nurturing a child — investing time and energy, and witnessing their growth first-hand — is nothing short of miraculous. It improves your worldview, perhaps immortality through your child is within reach. Yet, tragically, fate can intervene, shattering this vision with a sudden loss.

    Reflecting on this loss, it took me roughly ten years to come to terms with my mother’s death. I regret letting the sadness linger for too long. Opportunities to grow were lost.

    Yet the only way is forward, as life on this planet is too short. We grieve, but we should not dwell in it.

  • There is a tide in the affairs of men

    There is a tide in the affairs of men

    Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune
    Omitted, all the voyage of their life
    Is bound in shallows and in miseries.
    On such a full sea are we now afloat,
    And we must take the current when it serves,
    Or lose our ventures

    William Shakespeare

  • Screw

    I was listening to this tribute last night, which was an almost 20-minute rendition of Wally’s instrumental Screw. I am not a musician, but I found myself liking this song.

  • To be a better man

    In his interview with Steven Pressfield (The War of Art, The Legend of Bagger Vance, etc.), Joe Rogan mentioned that he didn’t have any goals. Instead he wants to get better at what he does. He thinks there’s an art towards becoming a better person.

    I remembered a Chinese TV drama (To Be a Better Man). The protagonist, a Michelin-starred chef Lu Yuan had everything, but his risk-seeking behavior for the next high cost him his relationship with his girlfriend and then he lost his career after being incarcerated. Only his best friend (who died on the first episode) was there for him. Lu Yuan took his best friend’s death as a signal to rebuild his life, make amends, and restart his culinary career (he lost his sense taste for most of the series).

    Around a month ago I was asked if I had a desire to change the world. My answer was all I wanted to do is to stay in the game (software) for as long as I can. What I didn’t say was I there was always that need to continuously get better, not only because the field is competitive (and biased towards youth), but also by getting better, the people around me get better as well. Getting better at something shouldn’t be at the expense of the people around you.